Oblivion Lockpicking

After picking up playing Oblivion again I realized that what I really never did manage to figure out how to do is the lockpicking mini game. Sure, I understand how it works and that both the visuals and the sounds can be used as cues (here a video of that). I just dont have the patience to sit there listening like some video game obsessed rain man.
So how do we solve this? Statistics. Simply push the tumbler up until ut falls down fast three times in a row. It is now very unlikely that it will fall down fast a fourth time. Not impossible, just unlikely. So this is not a fail-safe method or a perfect strategy. It is just a strategy that lets me play the mini game without thinking.